Sitting here on a Friday night I decided to share some random fantasy football, notes, stats and other assorted musings.
If a player is garnering all of their fantasy points on minimal snaps and/or targets you should look to sell high on that player.
Example A: Austin Hooper Week 1 – 2 Targets/2 receptions/64 Yards per reception 1 Touchdown 128 yards. If you follow football, and obviously you do, you know that the Falcon’s have not featured the Tight End position since Tony Gonzalez. Tight ends have never been targeted much, and it won’t be this year either with Julio, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman all ahead of Hooper in the pecking order. In the two games preceding week 1 Hooper has seen a total of 4 targets 3 receptions for 16 yards. Here’s hoping you sold on Hooper after the first game.
Example B: Chris Thompson – Chris Thompson has 2 rushing touchdowns on 14 rushing attempts. I’ll go ahead and be Captain Obvious here but 1 rushing touchdown every 7 attempts in highly unsustainable. Thompson also has 2 receiving touchdowns on 13 receptions, again not sustainable. Sell Chris Thompson now, especially coming off Monday nights performance while the recency bias is still fresh.
Buy Low Players:
Forget names. This about strategies that can sustain you. You should focus on players receiving plenty of targets or carries and not producing with them. One of the stickiest stats, as it pertains to fantasy data, is Wide Receiver targets. If a Wide Receiver is averaging a high number of targets week to week, or season to season, you can expect them to continue to do so. Whether they can produce with those targets is obviously their efficiency. Just as you can’t rely on hyper-efficiency, you can’t rely on under efficiency.
Okay, I’ll give you a couple of players to buy low on.
Alshon Jeffery: 26th overall in targets for Wide Receivers with 28 targets. 31st overall in with 12.9 fantasy points per game (PPR) scoring.
Dez Bryant: 38th in scoring with 11.5 points per game. His 27 targets are 9th in the league at the Wide Receiver position. He’s also played a murderer’s row of Cornerbacks. Patrick Peterson who is one of the few legit shutdown corners in the league covered Bryant in week 2. Last week it was Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby and the rest of the Bronco’s sublime defensive backs.
- I hate Team Defenses and Kickers. I wish none of my leagues used them. What are your thoughts on the matter?
- I wish I drafted more Kareem Hunt.
- Nothing like losing by 12 when Stefon Diggs is hanging out on your bench with 50 or so points(long distance bonus scoring league).
- Tarik Cohen should see more than 4 targets a week in the passing game.
Helpful links/Twitter follow:
Dynasty Football Factory: Redraft, Dynasty, Devy, IDP, Rankings, Podcasts, and articles.
Player Profiler: Advanced metrics, articles, and Podcasts.
FFToday: Fantasy stats, fantasy data.
Rotoworld(NFL): NFL team/player updates, fantasy articles, box scores, etc.
@ESPNFantasy: Only for Sundays. Get the inactive players lists as soon as they come out.
@RyanMc23: One of the best resources on Twitter and a genuinely nice guy.
And me!! Give me a follow @DFF_Shane. Leave a comment below. Start/sit questions, trade questions, advice on life, I don’t care. You leave a comment and I’ll reply. Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!